I was staring at the league table last night, trying to work out just how ‘safe’ we are, and the answer is not entirely, obviously, particularly in light of Sheffield Wednesday’s 1-3 win against Blackburn on Sunday.
First, the good news. Having lost on Saturday, Huddersfield would struggle – really struggle – to finish above us. They are six points behind, still languishing in the relegation zone, and even if they win their next two games and we lose ours, we’d still almost certainly beat them on goal difference. Theirs stands at -27 whereas ours is -16 and the Terriers aren’t going to close that gap in their next two games, however well they play.
Their next game is against Birmingham and, given that Huddersfield cannot realistically finish above us, we want them to beat the Blues. Having won on Saturday, Birmingham are on 46 points, four below us, which means if they lose to the Terriers they can’t catch us. To be clear, if Birmingham lose on Saturday, QPR are to all intents and purposes safe. Home and hosed.
But what if Birmingham win or draw? If they pick up a point and go on to win their next game – and we lose our next two – they would be level on points with us and would beat us on goal difference, with theirs currently -16. If they take six points from their remaining two games, they’ll leapfrog us. Which is not good. But that would mean beating Norwich on the final day, currently fighting to retain their spot in the play-offs, which seemly unlikely.
But even if the Blues pull that off, it doesn’t mean we’ll be back in the mire. Blackburn, Plymouth and Sheffield Wednesday – all currently below us – would also need to overtake us for the worst case scenario to materialise.
Blackburn have got Coventry and Leicester in their final two – an even worse run-in than us, although only just – and they need at least a point from those two to catch us. But if they do that, they, too, would beat us on goal difference since they’re currently on -16 as well.
Plymouth would need two points to go level on points with us, but their goal difference is -11 so that would be enough (assuming we lose our next two). Their next games are against Millwall and Hull. Wall are safe, so have nothing to play for, but Hull may be in contention for the play-offs on the last day. Of the teams currently below us but not in the relegation zone, I think Plymouth are the most likely to finish above us.
So that leaves Wednesday, currently trailing us by three points. Their last two are against West Brom and Sunderland, but winning one and losing the other wouldn’t be enough to overtake us since their goal difference is -29. They’d have to take four points from those games to go above us. Sunderland are on the beach, but West Brom, who are currently fifth, need the win to guarantee the play-offs. So that game will be critical. If the Owls lose that one, we’re also home and hosed.
But, of course, it’s still in our hands. If we get at least a point against Leeds on Friday night, Wednesday would need to win both their games to overtake us, which has got to be unlikely. Ditto Birmingham. Four points wouldn’t be enough. So a draw under the lights at Loftus Road would, I think, see us well and truly safe – although we wouldn’t know that for certain until the following day.
Not quite squeaky bum time, but for the pessimists among us there’s still a certain amount of nail-biting left to do. Given how our season has played out, I wouldn’t be surprised if we lose on Friday and all the teams around us win on Saturday, making our final match against Coventry a must-win game. (I’ve got my ticket to that one.) Such a shame the Sky Blues didn’t beat Man U yesterday since they’d then field their reserves against us to minimise the risk of any of their players getting injured ahead of the FA Cup final. But at least their play-off hopes are over so they’ll just be playing for pride.
Yesterday, Bet365 were offering 80-1 against us going down - crazy odds in my view in light of Toby’s analysis (I did the same last night) so I’ve had a bet to ease the pain if the worst happens.
Fantastic atmosphere on Saturday evening. In my opinion 17.15 on a Saturday is the perfect time for kickoff